Dev claim · claim-2429 · #61 of 154
“With 32 years of rapidly increasing global temperatures and only a minor increase in global CO2 emissions, followed by 33 years of slowly cooling global temperatures with rapid increases in global CO2 emissions, it was deceitful for the IPCC to make any claim that CO2 emissions were primarily responsible for observed 20th century global warming."”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- centuri
- claim
- cool
- deceit
- emiss
- emiss
- emiss
- follow
- global
- global
- global
- global
- global
- increas
- increas
- increas
- ipcc
- make
- minor
- observ
- primarili
- rapid
- rapidli
- respons
- slowli
- temperatur
- temperatur
- warm
- year
- year
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 53.1%
- Refutes
- 17.0%
- Not enough info
- 16.2%
- Disputed
- 13.7%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 48.2%
- Refutes
- 16.9%
- Not enough info
- 24.4%
- Disputed
- 10.5%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 25.2%
- Refutes
- 6.0%
- Not enough info
- 60.0%
- Disputed
- 8.8%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 0 of 3 gold
- P
- 0.00
- R
- 0.00
- F
- 0.00
#1evidence-363469 The issues surrounding global warming commonly included are emissions and the emission of other greenhouse gases, the melting of the polar ice caps, sea-level rise, natural disasters and massive changes to lifestyles caused by global warming.
- warm (shared with the claim)
- global (shared with the claim)
- emiss (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.733
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.733
- shared
- 3
#2evidence-368794 It shows a general warming in global temperatures.
- warm (shared with the claim)
- temperatur (shared with the claim)
- show
- global (shared with the claim)
- gener
- cos
- 0.557
- overlap
- 0.600
- score
- 1.157
- shared
- 3
Gold evidence (3)
evidence-755175 "The IPCC Third Assessment Report'] conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue".
- accur
- think
- ipcc (shared with the claim)
- conclu
evidence-1202023 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years.
- intergovern
- percent
- trap
- likelihood
evidence-483558 The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases.
- heat
- observ (shared with the claim)
- gase
- primarili (shared with the claim)
- past
- induc
- trap