Dev claim · claim-2250 · #60 of 154
“Some global warming 'skeptics' argue that the Earth's climate sensitivity is so low that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will result in a surface temperature change on the order of 1°C or less, and that therefore global warming is nothing to worry about.”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- argu
- atmospher
- chang
- climat
- doubl
- earth
- global
- global
- less
- low
- noth
- order
- result
- sensit
- skeptic
- surfac
- temperatur
- therefor
- warm
- warm
- worri
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 61.5%
- Refutes
- 25.6%
- Not enough info
- 2.6%
- Disputed
- 10.3%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 54.2%
- Refutes
- 27.5%
- Not enough info
- 11.9%
- Disputed
- 6.4%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 56.1%
- Refutes
- 18.6%
- Not enough info
- 11.0%
- Disputed
- 14.2%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 0 of 2 gold
- P
- 0.00
- R
- 0.00
- F
- 0.00
#1evidence-1092088 Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years.
- warm (shared with the claim)
- largest
- earth (shared with the claim)
- rate
- surfac (shared with the claim)
- temperatur (shared with the claim)
- global (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.567
- overlap
- 0.714
- score
- 1.281
- shared
- 5
Gold evidence (2)
evidence-692256 In his first paper on the matter, he estimated that global temperature would rise by around 5 to 6 °C (9.0 to 10.8 °F) if the quantity of CO 2 was doubled.
- quantiti
- co
- temperatur (shared with the claim)
- rise
- paper
- global (shared with the claim)
- matter
- doubl (shared with the claim)
- estim
evidence-1049371 The 1990 IPCC First Assessment Report estimated that equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO 2 lay between 1.5 and 4.5 °C (2.7 and 8.1 °F), with a "best guess in the light of current knowledge" of 2.5 °C (4.5 °F).
- assess
- knowledg
- equilibrium
- lay
- sensit (shared with the claim)
- ipcc
- doubl (shared with the claim)
- estim