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Climate Claim Checker

Dev claim · claim-3051 · #62 of 154

“Once natural influences, in particular the impact of El Niño and La Niña, are removed from the recent termperature record, there is no evidence of a significant change in the human contribution to climate change.”

Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)

  • chang
  • chang
  • climat
  • contribut
  • el
  • evid
  • human
  • impact
  • influenc
  • la
  • natur
  • niña
  • niño
  • particular
  • recent
  • record
  • remov
  • signific
  • termperatur

Annotators’ label

Disputed Run this claim live

The model’s verdict

The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.

Notebook protocol

Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
62.7%
Refutes
25.7%
Not enough info
2.0%
Disputed
9.6%

One claim at a time

The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
54.2%
Refutes
27.8%
Not enough info
11.7%
Disputed
6.3%

With gold evidence

Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
44.8%
Refutes
12.3%
Not enough info
30.5%
Disputed
12.4%

Retrieved vs gold evidence

Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.

2024 submission

The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.

Path
not recorded
Found
0 of 3 gold
P
0.00
R
0.00
F
0.00
  1. #1evidence-975177

    "El Niño in a changing climate".

    • niño (shared with the claim)
    • chang (shared with the claim)
    • climat (shared with the claim)
    • el (shared with the claim)
    cos
    0.591
    overlap
    1.000
    score
    1.591
    shared
    4
  2. #2evidence-443018

    These goals are challenged, however, by climate change deniers, who condemn strong scientific evidence of the human impact on climate change.

    • impact (shared with the claim)
    • strong
    • challeng
    • chang (shared with the claim)
    • evid (shared with the claim)
    • climat (shared with the claim)
    • condemn
    cos
    0.591
    overlap
    0.571
    score
    1.163
    shared
    4

Gold evidence (3)

  1. evidence-1187937

    Scientists have determined that the major factors causing the current climate change are greenhouse gases, land use changes, and aerosols and soot.

    • gase
    • chang (shared with the claim)
    • soot
    • aerosol
    • greenhou
    • factor
    • determin
  2. evidence-881808

    The introduction includes this statement: There is strong evidence that the warming of the Earth over the last half-century has been caused largely by human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use, including agriculture and deforestation.

    • deforest
    • statement
    • includ
  3. evidence-338219

    While ‘climate change’ can be due to natural forces or human activity, there is now substantial evidence to indicate that human activity – and specifically increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions – is a key factor in the pace and extent of global temperature increases.

    • human (shared with the claim)
    • ghg
    • pace
    • increa
    • activ