Dev claim · claim-1256 · #19 of 154
“‘Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice’”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- arctic
- free
- ice
- next
- year
- year
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 59.9%
- Refutes
- 34.3%
- Not enough info
- 0.3%
- Disputed
- 5.4%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 52.1%
- Refutes
- 39.8%
- Not enough info
- 4.9%
- Disputed
- 3.1%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 50.6%
- Refutes
- 14.7%
- Not enough info
- 20.1%
- Disputed
- 14.5%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 0 of 5 gold
- P
- 0.00
- R
- 0.00
- F
- 0.00
#1evidence-111881 "A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?".
- ice (shared with the claim)
- sea
- within
- arctic (shared with the claim)
- summer
- free (shared with the claim)
- year (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.595
- overlap
- 0.800
- score
- 1.395
- shared
- 4
Gold evidence (5)
evidence-731434 Research shows that the Arctic may become ice-free in the summer for the first time in human history by 2040.
- human
- ice (shared with the claim)
- histori
- research
- becom
- arctic (shared with the claim)
- summer
- free (shared with the claim)
evidence-39028 "Expert predicts ice-free Arctic by 2020 as UN releases climate report".
- relea
- ice (shared with the claim)
- un
- report
- predict
- climat
- arctic (shared with the claim)
- expert
- free (shared with the claim)
evidence-1107462 "US Navy predicts summer ice free Arctic by 2016".
- ice (shared with the claim)
- navi
- predict
- arctic (shared with the claim)
- summer
- free (shared with the claim)
- us
evidence-954212 (Current projected consequences of global warming include a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean within 5–20 years, see Arctic shrinkage.)
- warm
- arctic (shared with the claim)
- consequ
- free (shared with the claim)
- ocean
evidence-957020 Reports have also predicted that within a few decades the Arctic Ocean will be entirely free of ice in the summer.
- ice (shared with the claim)
- entir
- report
- predict
- arctic (shared with the claim)
- decad
- summer
- free (shared with the claim)
- ocean