Dev claim · claim-506 · #20 of 154
“More than 100 climate models over the past 30 years did not predict what actually happened because it was assumed carbon dioxide had the pivotal role in driving climate change and that the effects of clouds, back-radiation and the sun were trivial.”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- actual
- assum
- back
- carbon
- chang
- climat
- climat
- cloud
- dioxid
- drive
- effect
- happen
- model
- past
- pivot
- predict
- radiat
- role
- sun
- trivial
- year
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 58.8%
- Refutes
- 23.7%
- Not enough info
- 6.3%
- Disputed
- 11.3%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 53.1%
- Refutes
- 26.8%
- Not enough info
- 13.5%
- Disputed
- 6.5%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 13.4%
- Refutes
- 3.0%
- Not enough info
- 77.4%
- Disputed
- 6.3%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 2 of 5 gold
- P
- 1.00
- R
- 0.40
- F
- 0.57
#1evidence-1199931 gold evidence Climate models have been used to examine the role of the Sun in recent climate change.
- model (shared with the claim)
- role (shared with the claim)
- examin
- sun (shared with the claim)
- chang (shared with the claim)
- climat (shared with the claim)
- recent
- cos
- 0.676
- overlap
- 0.714
- score
- 1.390
- shared
- 5
#2evidence-100394 gold evidence "How the oceans absorb carbon dioxide is critical for predicting climate change".
- dioxid (shared with the claim)
- chang (shared with the claim)
- predict (shared with the claim)
- climat (shared with the claim)
- carbon (shared with the claim)
- absorb
- critic
- ocean
- cos
- 0.554
- overlap
- 0.625
- score
- 1.179
- shared
- 5
Gold evidence (5)
evidence-1199931 Climate models have been used to examine the role of the Sun in recent climate change.
- model (shared with the claim)
- role (shared with the claim)
- examin
- sun (shared with the claim)
- chang (shared with the claim)
- climat (shared with the claim)
- recent
evidence-510347 (2007) allowed for the possibility that climate models had been underestimated the effect of solar forcing.
- model (shared with the claim)
- allow
- forc
- possibl
- effect (shared with the claim)
- climat (shared with the claim)
- solar
evidence-1057489 Computer models are run on supercomputers to reproduce and predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.
- atmosph
- carbon (shared with the claim)
- surfac
- predict (shared with the claim)
- circul
- reproduc
- cycl
- comput
- flow
- ocean
evidence-100394 "How the oceans absorb carbon dioxide is critical for predicting climate change".
- dioxid (shared with the claim)
- chang (shared with the claim)
- predict (shared with the claim)
- climat (shared with the claim)
- carbon (shared with the claim)
- absorb
- critic
- ocean
evidence-1197833 They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability.
- magnitud
- climat (shared with the claim)
- variabl
- broadli