Dev claim · claim-856 · #41 of 154
“as the pathbreaking work by Rosamond Naylor and David Battisti has shown, the tropics are already too hot to efficiently grow grain, and those places where grain is produced today are already at optimal growing temperature — which means even a small warming will push them down the slope of declining productivity.”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- alreadi
- alreadi
- battisti
- david
- declin
- effici
- even
- grain
- grain
- grow
- grow
- hot
- mean
- naylor
- optim
- pathbreak
- place
- produc
- product
- push
- rosamond
- shown
- slope
- small
- temperatur
- today
- tropic
- warm
- work
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 6.6%
- Refutes
- 1.6%
- Not enough info
- 89.2%
- Disputed
- 2.7%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 20.6%
- Refutes
- 4.2%
- Not enough info
- 60.2%
- Disputed
- 15.0%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 40.0%
- Refutes
- 10.6%
- Not enough info
- 33.9%
- Disputed
- 15.6%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 0 of 2 gold
- P
- 0.00
- R
- 0.00
- F
- 0.00
#1evidence-862879 He had jilted even Merlin.
- even (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.280
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.280
- shared
- 1
#2evidence-826036 It was placed on the National Register of Historic Places listings in Bexar County, Texas on February 16, 1996.
- place (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.243
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.243
- shared
- 1
#3evidence-1081680 In early 1978, the church building was listed on the National Register of Historic Places, qualifying both because of its important architecture and because of the place it has played in the history of Mallet Creek and the surrounding area.
- place (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.243
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.243
- shared
- 1
#4evidence-135039 Currently, he is the Producer-in-Residence at the University of Utah, a partner in Pearl Farm Entertainment, based in Los Angeles, and a producer for the Film-Video Division at The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
- produc (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.238
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.238
- shared
- 1
#5evidence-1187698 The potatoes they grow small in Millington.
- small (shared with the claim)
- grow (shared with the claim)
- محمد
- potato
- cos
- 0.564
- overlap
- 0.500
- score
- 1.064
- shared
- 2
#6evidence-625014 Today, Serpentine is a producer of grain and cattle and a popular place for anglers.
- cattl
- today (shared with the claim)
- place (shared with the claim)
- grain (shared with the claim)
- produc (shared with the claim)
- popular
- cos
- 0.377
- overlap
- 0.667
- score
- 1.044
- shared
- 4
Gold evidence (2)
evidence-1166728 In Africa and Latin America many rainfed crops are near their maximum temperature tolerance, so that yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes; falls in agricultural productivity of up to 30% over the 21st century are projected.
- toler
- fall
- yield
- maximum
- latin
- sharpli
- agricultur
- crop
evidence-578305 Rice becomes sterile if exposed to temperatures above 35 degrees for more than one hour during flowering and consequently produces no grain.
- degr
- steril
- rice
- expo
- hour
- grain (shared with the claim)
- temperatur (shared with the claim)
- flower
- consequ