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Climate Claim Checker

Dev claim · claim-803 · #120 of 154

“The team of climate scientists notes that in failing to predict the warming ‘hiatus’ in the beginning of the 21st century, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models overestimated temperature increases…”

Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)

  • begin
  • centuri
  • chang
  • climat
  • climat
  • fail
  • hiatu
  • intergovernment
  • ipcc
  • model
  • note
  • overestim
  • panel
  • predict
  • scientist
  • team
  • temperatur
  • warm

Annotators’ label

Disputed Run this claim live

The model’s verdict

The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.

Notebook protocol

Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.

Not enough info✗ differs from the label
Supports
10.2%
Refutes
2.3%
Not enough info
83.9%
Disputed
3.6%

One claim at a time

The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.

Not enough info✗ differs from the label
Supports
21.7%
Refutes
4.5%
Not enough info
60.7%
Disputed
13.1%

With gold evidence

Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.

Not enough info✗ differs from the label
Supports
18.7%
Refutes
4.6%
Not enough info
70.4%
Disputed
6.3%

Retrieved vs gold evidence

Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.

2024 submission

The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.

Path
not recorded
Found
0 of 4 gold
P
0.00
R
0.00
F
0.00
  1. #1evidence-649421

    He was a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second, Third and Fourth Assessment Reports (the IPCC shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore) and served on the Synthesis Team for the US National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the United States.

    • assess
    • climat (shared with the claim)
    • chang (shared with the claim)
    • ipcc (shared with the claim)
    cos
    0.652
    overlap
    0.750
    score
    1.402
    shared
    3
  2. #2evidence-943081

    The merged record is used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in all its publications.

    • chang (shared with the claim)
    • merg
    • panel (shared with the claim)
    • intergovern
    • climat (shared with the claim)
    cos
    0.652
    overlap
    0.600
    score
    1.252
    shared
    3
  3. #3evidence-1108933

    1995 saw the creation of the phrase "preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" (also called "avoiding dangerous climate change") first appeared in a policy document of a governmental organization, the IPCC's Second Assessment Report: Climate Change 1995. and in 1996 the European Union adopt a goal of limiting temperature rises to a maximum 2 °C rise in average global temperature.

    • chang (shared with the claim)
    • temperatur (shared with the claim)
    • climat (shared with the claim)
    • danger
    • rise
    cos
    0.612
    overlap
    0.600
    score
    1.212
    shared
    3

Gold evidence (4)

  1. evidence-968233

    Models referenced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict that global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) between 1990 and 2100.

    • intergovern
    • referenc
    • ipcc (shared with the claim)
  2. evidence-325440

    The observed increase in hurricane intensity is larger than climate models predict for the sea surface temperature changes we have experienced.

    • larger
    • inten
    • hurrican
    • predict (shared with the claim)
    • experienc
  3. evidence-1197833

    They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability.

    • magnitud
    • climat (shared with the claim)
    • variabl
    • broadli
  4. evidence-657969

    The finished report summarizes the findings of scientists, showing that maintaining a temperature rise to below 1.5 °C remains possible, but only through "rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure..., and industrial systems".

    • rapid
    • scientist (shared with the claim)
    • urban
    • infrastructur
    • transit
    • far
    • find
    • summar
    • maintain

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Second opinion from an LLM

The model reads this claim and the evidence passages shown on this page, picks one of the four verdicts and cites the passages it used. It is told to judge from the passages only. You review the answer; the call and your decision go to the AI audit log in this browser.

Evidence to send

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