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Climate Claim Checker

Dev claim · claim-785 · #34 of 154

“In many other cases, though — hurricanes, for example — the linkage to global warming for particular trends is uncertain or disputed.”

Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)

  • case
  • disput
  • exampl
  • global
  • hurrican
  • linkag
  • mani
  • particular
  • though
  • trend
  • uncertain
  • warm

Annotators’ label

Not enough info Run this claim live

The model’s verdict

The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.

Notebook protocol

Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
60.4%
Refutes
33.5%
Not enough info
0.3%
Disputed
5.8%

One claim at a time

The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
53.7%
Refutes
37.6%
Not enough info
5.2%
Disputed
3.6%

With gold evidence

Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.

Not enough info✓ matches the label
Supports
33.7%
Refutes
8.0%
Not enough info
45.2%
Disputed
13.1%

Retrieved vs gold evidence

Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.

2024 submission

The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.

Path
not recorded
Found
0 of 5 gold
P
0.00
R
0.00
F
0.00
  1. #1evidence-1145847

    There are many examples of such symmetry.

    • mani (shared with the claim)
    • exampl (shared with the claim)
    • symmetri
    cos
    0.602
    overlap
    0.667
    score
    1.268
    shared
    2

Gold evidence (5)

  1. evidence-3489

    Human activity is likely to have made a substantial contribution to ocean surface temperature changes in hurricane formation regions.

    • contribut
    • surfac
    • hurrican (shared with the claim)
    • temperatur
    • substanti
    • format
    • ocean
  2. evidence-202201

    In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, as well as poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.

    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • earlier
    • ecosystem
    • upward
    • spring
    • link
    • terrestri
    • shift
    • confid
  3. evidence-1038523

    Climate change has been linked to an increase in violent conflict by amplifying poverty and economic shocks, which are well-documented drivers of these conflicts.

    • violent
    • driver
    • poverti
    • document
    • econom
    • amplifi
    • conflict
    • link
    • shock
  4. evidence-1041281

    Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is weak.

    • two
    • relationship
    • area
    • linkag (shared with the claim)
    • although
    • weak
  5. evidence-626239

    Regional effects of global warming are long-term significant changes in the expected patterns of average weather of a specific region due to global warming.

    • pattern
    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • region
    • expect
    • global (shared with the claim)
    • weather