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Climate Claim Checker

Dev claim · claim-368 · #111 of 154

“The most recent IPCC report lays out a future if we limit global heating to 1.5°C instead of the Paris Agreement’s 2°C.”

Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)

  • agreement
  • futur
  • global
  • heat
  • instead
  • ipcc
  • lay
  • limit
  • pari
  • recent
  • report

Annotators’ label

Disputed Run this claim live

The model’s verdict

The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.

Notebook protocol

Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
51.4%
Refutes
16.5%
Not enough info
18.9%
Disputed
13.3%

One claim at a time

The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
47.2%
Refutes
17.4%
Not enough info
24.6%
Disputed
10.8%

With gold evidence

Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
53.4%
Refutes
16.8%
Not enough info
16.9%
Disputed
12.9%

Retrieved vs gold evidence

Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.

2024 submission

The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.

Path
not recorded
Found
0 of 4 gold
P
0.00
R
0.00
F
0.00
  1. #1evidence-779732

    Justus Moak Scrafford (January 7, 1878 -- February 6, 1947) was an American track and field athlete who competed at the 1900 Summer Olympics in Paris, France.

    • pari (shared with the claim)
    cos
    0.380
    overlap
    1.000
    score
    1.380
    shared
    1
  2. #2evidence-1189988

    The report was finalised in Paris.

    • محمد
    • pari (shared with the claim)
    • report (shared with the claim)
    cos
    0.500
    overlap
    0.667
    score
    1.167
    shared
    2
  3. #3evidence-747432

    (IPCC, 2007c:819)).

    • ipcc (shared with the claim)
    cos
    0.000
    overlap
    1.000
    score
    1.000
    shared
    1
  4. #4evidence-1143842

    IPCC (2007a:8) projected that in the future, over most land areas, the frequency of warm spells or heat waves would very likely increase.

    • warm
    • heat (shared with the claim)
    • frequenc
    • spell
    • futur (shared with the claim)
    • ipcc (shared with the claim)
    • wave
    cos
    0.555
    overlap
    0.429
    score
    0.984
    shared
    3
  5. #5evidence-234981

    assessed the literature on global futures scenarios.

    • assess
    • literatur
    • futur (shared with the claim)
    • global (shared with the claim)
    • scenario
    cos
    0.545
    overlap
    0.400
    score
    0.945
    shared
    2
  6. #6evidence-908051

    In 2010, Parties to the UNFCCC agreed that future global warming should be limited to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to the pre-industrial level.

    • warm
    • agr
    • unfccc
    • futur (shared with the claim)
    • limit (shared with the claim)
    • global (shared with the claim)
    • pre
    • rel
    cos
    0.566
    overlap
    0.375
    score
    0.941
    shared
    3

Gold evidence (4)

  1. evidence-853312

    In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep climate change well below 2 °C.

    • aim
    • un
    • keep
    • chang
    • agreement (shared with the claim)
    • pari (shared with the claim)
    • climat
    • negoti
  2. evidence-839100

    Meeting the Paris target of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) is possible but would require "deep emissions reductions", "rapid", "far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society".

    • reduct
    • unprec
    • rapid
    • emiss
    • far
    • deep
    • target
    • aspect
  3. evidence-46356

    Deep reductions in non-CO2 emissions (such as nitrous oxide and methane) will also be required to limit warming to 1.5 °C.

    • warm
    • reduct
    • requir
    • oxid
    • emiss
    • deep
    • methan
    • nitrou
    • limit (shared with the claim)
  4. evidence-994667

    Holding this rise to 1.5 °C avoids the worst effects of a rise by even 2 °C.

    • even
    • hold
    • worst
    • effect
    • rise
    • avoid

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Second opinion from an LLM

The model reads this claim and the evidence passages shown on this page, picks one of the four verdicts and cites the passages it used. It is told to judge from the passages only. You review the answer; the call and your decision go to the AI audit log in this browser.

Evidence to send

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