Dev claim · claim-331 · #76 of 154
“But each serial adjustment has tended to make the early years colder, which increases the warming trend.”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- adjust
- colder
- earli
- increas
- make
- serial
- tend
- trend
- warm
- year
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 58.2%
- Refutes
- 25.4%
- Not enough info
- 6.4%
- Disputed
- 10.0%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 53.2%
- Refutes
- 27.8%
- Not enough info
- 12.5%
- Disputed
- 6.4%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 16.9%
- Refutes
- 3.6%
- Not enough info
- 71.4%
- Disputed
- 8.1%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 0 of 5 gold
- P
- 0.00
- R
- 0.00
- F
- 0.00
#1evidence-248265 Urvikon choreography makes Maiju Missokia.
- make (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.521
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.521
- shared
- 1
#2evidence-329560 The mill continued to struggle on making a loss for most of the early years.
- struggl
- make (shared with the claim)
- earli (shared with the claim)
- continu
- loss
- mill
- year (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.615
- overlap
- 0.429
- score
- 1.044
- shared
- 3
#3evidence-500072 It makes up 60% of all rainforests.
- rainforest
- make (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.521
- overlap
- 0.500
- score
- 1.021
- shared
- 1
#4evidence-1149253 This is it : stop making them unhappy and useless.
- stop
- make (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.521
- overlap
- 0.500
- score
- 1.021
- shared
- 1
#5evidence-767048 Stoléru learned the piano in his early years.
- محمد
- learn
- earli (shared with the claim)
- piano
- year (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.620
- overlap
- 0.400
- score
- 1.020
- shared
- 2
#6evidence-1092935 He was active during the early years of the Indianapolis 500.
- indianapoli
- activ
- year (shared with the claim)
- earli (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.519
- overlap
- 0.500
- score
- 1.019
- shared
- 2
Gold evidence (5)
evidence-138622 The RSS satellite temperature record showed a slight cooling trend, but the UAH satellite temperature record showed a slight warming trend.
- warm (shared with the claim)
- trend (shared with the claim)
- cool
- satellit
- temperatur
- show
- slight
- record
evidence-584709 The general public had little awareness of carbon dioxide's effects on climate, but Science News in May 1959 forecast a 25% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000, with a consequent warming trend.
- dioxid
- forecast
- awar
- carbon
evidence-1189271 Climate change adaptation is "the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities".
- benefici
- adjust (shared with the claim)
- exploit
- moder
- actual
- opportun
- expect
- climat
- adapt
- harm
evidence-561696 Because the climate system has large thermal inertia, it can take centuries for the climate to fully adjust.
- adjust (shared with the claim)
- system
- larg
- fulli
- climat
- centuri
- take
- thermal
evidence-311416 Globally, these effects are estimated to have led to a slight cooling, dominated by an increase in surface albedo.
- albedo
- surfac
- cool
- increa
- led
- effect
- slight
- global
- domin
- estim