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Climate Claim Checker

Dev claim · claim-204 · #151 of 154

“after a natural orbitally driven warming, atmospheric carbon dioxide content increases 800 years later”

Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)

  • atmospher
  • carbon
  • content
  • dioxid
  • driven
  • increas
  • later
  • natur
  • orbit
  • warm
  • year

Annotators’ label

Not enough info Run this claim live

The model’s verdict

The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.

Notebook protocol

Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
60.8%
Refutes
33.7%
Not enough info
0.3%
Disputed
5.2%

One claim at a time

The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
52.4%
Refutes
39.7%
Not enough info
4.8%
Disputed
3.2%

With gold evidence

Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.

Not enough info✓ matches the label
Supports
9.1%
Refutes
1.9%
Not enough info
84.1%
Disputed
4.8%

Retrieved vs gold evidence

Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.

2024 submission

The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.

Path
not recorded
Found
0 of 5 gold
P
0.00
R
0.00
F
0.00
  1. #1evidence-409635

    They were divorced 10 years later.

    • year (shared with the claim)
    • later (shared with the claim)
    • divorc
    cos
    0.558
    overlap
    0.667
    score
    1.225
    shared
    2

Gold evidence (5)

  1. evidence-368192

    Increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone have correspondingly strengthened their absorption and emission of infrared radiation, causing the rise in average global temperature since the mid-20th century.

    • ozon
    • infrar
    • absorpt
    • nitrou
    • strengthen
  2. evidence-261690

    Earth's increasing surface temperature will accelerate the inorganic carbon cycle, reducing CO 2 concentration to levels lethally low for plants (10 ppm for C4 photosynthesis) in approximately 100–900 million years.

    • lethal
    • concentr
    • inorgan
    • accel
    • photosynthesi
    • ppm
  3. evidence-203533

    Along with the decrease of atmospheric carbon dioxide reducing the global temperature, orbital factors in ice creation can be seen with 100,000-year and 400,000-year fluctuations in benthic oxygen isotope records.

    • isotop
    • orbit (shared with the claim)
    • fluctuat
    • decrea
    • oxygen
    • year (shared with the claim)
  4. evidence-803887

    The current warming period is expected to last another 50,000 years due to a minimum in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit.

    • anoth
    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • orbit (shared with the claim)
    • period
    • earth
    • minimum
    • expect
    • eccentr
  5. evidence-890534

    The associated period of massive carbon release into the atmosphere has been estimated to have lasted from 20,000 to 50,000 years.

    • relea
    • atmosph
    • associ
    • period
    • massiv
    • year (shared with the claim)
    • carbon (shared with the claim)
    • last
    • estim

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Second opinion from an LLM

The model reads this claim and the evidence passages shown on this page, picks one of the four verdicts and cites the passages it used. It is told to judge from the passages only. You review the answer; the call and your decision go to the AI audit log in this browser.

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