Dev claim · claim-1745 · #46 of 154
“The IPCC simply updated their temperature history graphs to show the best data available at the time.”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- avail
- best
- data
- graph
- histori
- ipcc
- show
- simpli
- temperatur
- time
- updat
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 60.2%
- Refutes
- 33.3%
- Not enough info
- 0.3%
- Disputed
- 6.2%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 53.3%
- Refutes
- 37.8%
- Not enough info
- 5.4%
- Disputed
- 3.5%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 2.0%
- Refutes
- 0.3%
- Not enough info
- 96.3%
- Disputed
- 1.4%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 0 of 5 gold
- P
- 0.00
- R
- 0.00
- F
- 0.00
#1evidence-45045 Available data show, for example, that :
- محمد
- exampl
- show (shared with the claim)
- avail (shared with the claim)
- data (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.565
- overlap
- 0.600
- score
- 1.165
- shared
- 3
Gold evidence (5)
evidence-660105 This decadal summer temperature reconstruction, together with a separate curve plotting instrumental thermometer data from the 1850s onwards, was featured as Figure 3.20 in the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) of 1996.
- assess
- plot
- instrument
- reconstruct
- decad
- onward
- ipcc (shared with the claim)
- curv
- sar
evidence-1197833 They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability.
- magnitud
- climat
- variabl
- broadli
evidence-1052408 This graph extended the similar graph in Figure 3.20 from the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995, and differed from a schematic in the first assessment report that lacked temperature units, but appeared to depict larger global temperature variations over the past 1000 years, and higher temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period than the mid 20th century.
- assess
- report
- graph (shared with the claim)
- temperatur (shared with the claim)
- ipcc (shared with the claim)
evidence-911855 These studies were widely presented as demonstrating that the current warming period is exceptional in comparison to temperatures between 1000 and 1900, and the MBH99 based graph featured in publicity.
- warm
- except
- period
- present
- comparison
- wide
- temperatur (shared with the claim)
- graph (shared with the claim)
- demonstr
evidence-332770 This was the basis of a "schematic diagram" featured in the IPCC First Assessment Report beside cautions that the medieval warming might not have been global.
- warm
- assess
- might
- diagram
- caution
- basi
- ipcc (shared with the claim)
- mediev
- besid