Skip to content
Climate Claim Checker

Dev claim · claim-1638 · #101 of 154

“Worry about global warming impacts in the next 100 years, not an ice age in over 10,000 years.”

Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)

  • age
  • global
  • ice
  • impact
  • next
  • warm
  • worri
  • year
  • year

Annotators’ label

Not enough info Run this claim live

The model’s verdict

The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.

Notebook protocol

Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
60.3%
Refutes
33.3%
Not enough info
0.4%
Disputed
6.0%

One claim at a time

The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
52.7%
Refutes
38.9%
Not enough info
5.0%
Disputed
3.4%

With gold evidence

Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.

Not enough info✓ matches the label
Supports
7.9%
Refutes
1.6%
Not enough info
87.0%
Disputed
3.5%

Retrieved vs gold evidence

Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.

2024 submission

The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.

Path
not recorded
Found
0 of 5 gold
P
0.00
R
0.00
F
0.00
  1. #1evidence-496943

    Therefore, he deduced a 41,000-year period for ice ages.

    • ice (shared with the claim)
    • period
    • therefor
    • year (shared with the claim)
    • age (shared with the claim)
    cos
    0.614
    overlap
    0.600
    score
    1.214
    shared
    3

Gold evidence (5)

  1. evidence-336096

    These global climatic changes occurred slowly, prior to the rise of human civilization about 10 thousand years ago near the end of the last Major Ice Age when the climate became more stable.

    • slowli
    • ago
    • climat
    • stabl
  2. evidence-418973

    [citation needed] The amount of heat trapping gases emitted into Earth's Oceans and atmosphere will prevent the next ice age, which otherwise would begin in around 50,000 years, and likely more glacial cycles.

    • gase
    • otherwi
    • prevent
    • citat
    • glacial
    • trap
    • emit
  3. evidence-142343

    Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 were equivalent to 49 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (using the most recent global warming potentials over 100 years from the AR5 report).

    • tonn
    • anthropogen
    • equiv
    • billion
    • dioxid
    • global (shared with the claim)
  4. evidence-954212

    (Current projected consequences of global warming include a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean within 5–20 years, see Arctic shrinkage.)

    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • arctic
    • consequ
    • free
    • ocean
  5. evidence-1016625

    Projections based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios suggest warming over the 21st century at a more rapid rate than that experienced for at least the last 10,000 years.

    • special
    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • rapid
    • least
    • suggest
    • rate
    • emiss
    • experienc
    • scenario