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Climate Claim Checker

Dev claim · claim-1567 · #39 of 154

“IPCC overestimate temperature rise.”

Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)

  • ipcc
  • overestim
  • rise
  • temperatur

Annotators’ label

Refutes Run this claim live

The model’s verdict

The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.

Notebook protocol

Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
59.6%
Refutes
33.3%
Not enough info
0.4%
Disputed
6.6%

One claim at a time

The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
52.8%
Refutes
37.7%
Not enough info
5.8%
Disputed
3.7%

With gold evidence

Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
61.0%
Refutes
32.8%
Not enough info
0.1%
Disputed
6.1%

Retrieved vs gold evidence

Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.

2024 submission

The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.

Path
not recorded
Found
0 of 1 gold
P
0.00
R
0.00
F
0.00
  1. #1evidence-950248

    The IPCC (2007) estimates that the expected rise in temperature due to a doubling of CO2 to be about 3 °C (5.4 °F), ± 1.5°.

    • due
    • temperatur (shared with the claim)
    • expect
    • rise (shared with the claim)
    • ipcc (shared with the claim)
    • doubl
    • estim
    cos
    0.650
    overlap
    0.750
    score
    1.400
    shared
    3
  2. #2evidence-658225

    The IPCC (2007) estimates that the expected rise in temperature due to a doubling of CO to be about , ± 1.5°.

    • co
    • due
    • temperatur (shared with the claim)
    • expect
    • ipcc (shared with the claim)
    • rise (shared with the claim)
    • doubl
    • estim
    cos
    0.601
    overlap
    0.750
    score
    1.351
    shared
    3

Gold evidence (1)

  1. evidence-105184

    Under the pledges of the countries entering the Paris Accord, a sharp rise of 3.1 to 3.7 °C is still expected to occur by 2100.

    • pledg
    • accord
    • sharp
    • countri
    • pari
    • expect
    • enter
    • rise (shared with the claim)
    • still
    • occur