Dev claim · claim-1040 · #109 of 154
“While evidence that the earth’s orbital variations impact radiation levels and thus global temperatures does not of course mean that man is not in some way impacting the climate, studies like these highlight that the role man plays on the planet is dwarfed by natural phenomena utterly out of our control.”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- climat
- control
- cours
- dwarf
- earth
- evid
- global
- highlight
- impact
- impact
- level
- like
- man
- man
- mean
- natur
- orbit
- phenomena
- planet
- play
- radiat
- role
- studi
- temperatur
- thu
- utterli
- variat
- way
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 16.6%
- Refutes
- 4.3%
- Not enough info
- 72.6%
- Disputed
- 6.4%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 33.8%
- Refutes
- 8.9%
- Not enough info
- 43.1%
- Disputed
- 14.2%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 2.0%
- Refutes
- 0.3%
- Not enough info
- 96.7%
- Disputed
- 1.0%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 0 of 5 gold
- P
- 0.00
- R
- 0.00
- F
- 0.00
#1evidence-180997 impacts.
- impact (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.445
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.445
- shared
- 1
#2evidence-664940 She played the role of Bangabala in Ritwik Ghatak 's Jukti Takko Aar Gappo.
- role (shared with the claim)
- play (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.259
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.259
- shared
- 2
#3evidence-568021 90 OTCs 99 controls
- control (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.207
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.207
- shared
- 1
#4evidence-898864 40 OTCs 40 controls
- control (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.207
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.207
- shared
- 1
#5evidence-530556 Role [` role] (formerly German Röhlshof) is a village in the administrative district of Gmina Rąbino, within Świdwin County, West Pomeranian Voivodeship, in north-western Poland.
- role (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.200
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.200
- shared
- 1
#6evidence-478843 They have most frequently played against the South Island cricket team, but have also played first-class matches against touring national sides.
- play (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.165
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.165
- shared
- 1
Gold evidence (5)
evidence-550422 There are many interesting palaeoclimate studies that suggest that solar variability had an influence on pre-industrial climate.
- variabl
- interest
- suggest
- industri
- studi (shared with the claim)
- influenc
- climat (shared with the claim)
- pre
- solar
evidence-163450 The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane (the specific levels of the previously mentioned gases are now able to be seen with the new ice core samples from EPICA Dome C in Antarctica over the past 800,000 years); changes in the earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles; the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the earth's surface, which affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth–Moon system; the impact of relatively large meteorites and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.
- orbit (shared with the claim)
- earth (shared with the claim)
- meteorit
- tecton
- chang
- crust
- rel
- ocean
evidence-1107482 Physical evidence shows that the variation in Earth's climate is much more extreme than the variation in the intensity of solar radiation calculated as the Earth's orbit evolves.
- orbit (shared with the claim)
- earth (shared with the claim)
- inten
- calcul
- variat (shared with the claim)
- evolv
- radiat (shared with the claim)
evidence-1137996 Since orbital variations are predictable, any model that relates orbital variations to climate can be run forward to predict future climate, with two caveats: the mechanism by which orbital forcing influences climate is not definitive; and non-orbital effects can be important (for example, Human impact on the environment principally increases in greenhouse gases result in a warmer climate).
- orbit (shared with the claim)
- gase
- warmer
- predict
- variat (shared with the claim)
- climat (shared with the claim)
- greenhou
- definit
evidence-720840 Milankovitch studied changes in these movements of the Earth, which alter the amount and location of solar radiation reaching the Earth.
- reach
- earth (shared with the claim)
- chang
- studi (shared with the claim)
- movement
- amount
- radiat (shared with the claim)
- solar
- alter
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Second opinion from an LLM
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