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Climate Claim Checker

Dev claim · claim-811 · #69 of 154

“But [climate scientists] say that aspects of the case of Hurricane Harvey—and the recent history of tropical cyclones worldwide—suggest global warming is making a bad situation worse.”

Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)

  • aspect
  • bad
  • case
  • climat
  • cyclon
  • global
  • histori
  • hurrican
  • make
  • recent
  • say
  • scientist
  • situat
  • tropic
  • warm
  • wors

Annotators’ label

Supports Run this claim live

The model’s verdict

The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.

Notebook protocol

Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.

Not enough info✗ differs from the label
Supports
6.3%
Refutes
1.3%
Not enough info
90.3%
Disputed
2.1%

One claim at a time

The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.

Not enough info✗ differs from the label
Supports
9.6%
Refutes
1.2%
Not enough info
76.9%
Disputed
12.3%

With gold evidence

Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.

Not enough info✗ differs from the label
Supports
24.4%
Refutes
5.0%
Not enough info
59.9%
Disputed
10.7%

Retrieved vs gold evidence

Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.

2024 submission

The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.

Path
not recorded
Found
0 of 5 gold
P
0.00
R
0.00
F
0.00
  1. #1evidence-614890

    Subtitled "The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud," the book draws attention to a number of scientists and others who, according to Solomon, have advanced arguments against what he calls the "alarmist" view of global warming, as presented by Al Gore, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the mainstream media, and others.

    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • global (shared with the claim)
    • scientist (shared with the claim)
    cos
    0.392
    overlap
    1.000
    score
    1.392
    shared
    3
  2. #2evidence-940169

    The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s.

    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • climat (shared with the claim)
    cos
    0.386
    overlap
    1.000
    score
    1.386
    shared
    2
  3. #3evidence-248265

    Urvikon choreography makes Maiju Missokia.

    • make (shared with the claim)
    cos
    0.364
    overlap
    1.000
    score
    1.364
    shared
    1
  4. #4evidence-35720

    He asserts that global warming is not supported by a significant number of climate scientists, and criticises how the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presents evidence and data, in particular citing its reliance on potentially inaccurate global climate models to make temperature projections.

    • global (shared with the claim)
    • climat (shared with the claim)
    • relianc
    cos
    0.550
    overlap
    0.667
    score
    1.217
    shared
    2
  5. #5evidence-617222

    Spencer has published two books on climate change: In 2008, "Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor", and in 2010, "The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World’s Top Climate Scientists".

    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • hurt
    • climat (shared with the claim)
    • global (shared with the claim)
    • fool
    cos
    0.550
    overlap
    0.600
    score
    1.150
    shared
    3
  6. #6evidence-210566

    Recent global warming is one of many natural cycles of warming and cooling in geologic history.

    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • histori (shared with the claim)
    • natur
    • cool
    • recent (shared with the claim)
    • cycl
    • geolog
    • global (shared with the claim)
    cos
    0.572
    overlap
    0.500
    score
    1.072
    shared
    4

Gold evidence (5)

  1. evidence-604477

    Global warming not only causes changes in tropical cyclones, it may also make some impacts from them worse via sea level rise.

    • wor
    • cyclon (shared with the claim)
    • tropic (shared with the claim)
  2. evidence-1055682

    "It's a fact: climate change made Hurricane Harvey more deadly".

    • chang
    • harvey
    • made
    • fact
    • deadli
    • hurrican (shared with the claim)
    • climat (shared with the claim)
  3. evidence-1047356

    The Gulf of Mexico is known for hurricanes in August, so their incidence alone cannot be attributed to global warming, but the warming climate does influence certain attributes of storms.

    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • attribut
    • alon
    • hurrican (shared with the claim)
    • incid
    • gulf
    • storm
  4. evidence-759337

    Weather events are due to multiple factors, and so cannot be said to be caused by one precondition, but climate change affects aspects of extreme events, and very likely worsened some of the impacts of Harvey.

    • worsen
    • harvey
    • multipl
    • affect
    • event
    • factor
    • weather
    • extrem
    • aspect (shared with the claim)
  5. evidence-879500

    "Storm Harvey: impacts likely worsened due to global warming".

    • like
    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • impact
    • worsen
    • harvey
    • due
    • storm
    • global (shared with the claim)