Dev claim · claim-75 · #14 of 154
“The science is clear, climate change is making extreme weather events, including tornadoes, worse.”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- chang
- clear
- climat
- event
- extrem
- includ
- make
- scienc
- tornado
- weather
- wors
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 54.7%
- Refutes
- 24.0%
- Not enough info
- 14.0%
- Disputed
- 7.2%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 53.0%
- Refutes
- 24.7%
- Not enough info
- 15.5%
- Disputed
- 6.9%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 6.2%
- Refutes
- 1.1%
- Not enough info
- 89.7%
- Disputed
- 2.9%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 0 of 5 gold
- P
- 0.00
- R
- 0.00
- F
- 0.00
#1evidence-288355 The essay stated the analysis was to test the hypothesis that the drafting of reports and statements by societies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, American Association for the Advancement of Science and National Academy of Sciences might downplay legitimate dissenting opinions on anthropogenic climate change.
- scienc (shared with the claim)
- dissent
- climat (shared with the claim)
- chang (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.737
- overlap
- 0.750
- score
- 1.487
- shared
- 3
#2evidence-496792 Climate Change Science Program from 2002 through 2008.
- scienc (shared with the claim)
- climat (shared with the claim)
- program
- chang (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.644
- overlap
- 0.750
- score
- 1.394
- shared
- 3
Gold evidence (5)
evidence-940688 The main impact of global warming on the weather is an increase in extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, cyclones, blizzards and rainstorms.
- weather (shared with the claim)
- cyclon
- wave
- drought
- extrem (shared with the claim)
evidence-985094 Documented long-term climate changes include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones.
- salin
- precipit
- chang (shared with the claim)
- cyclon
- includ (shared with the claim)
- drought
evidence-8304 As the Earth's climate warms, we are seeing many changes: stronger, more destructive hurricanes; heavier rainfall; more disastrous flooding; more areas of the world experiencing severe drought; and more heat waves."
- heavier
- disastr
- hurrican
- rainfal
- stronger
- destruct
- drought
- experienc
evidence-653981 This could lead to changing, and for all emissions scenarios more unpredictable, weather patterns around the world, less frost days, more extreme events (droughts and storm or flood disasters), and warmer sea temperatures and melting glaciers causing sea levels to rise.
- melt
- frost
- sea
- warmer
- disast
- drought
- scenario
evidence-789848 Climate change caused by human activities that emit greenhouse gases into the air is expected to affect the frequency of extreme weather events such as drought, extreme temperatures, flooding, high winds, and severe storms.
- gase
- frequenc
- drought
- extrem (shared with the claim)
- emit