Dev claim · claim-3069 · #49 of 154
“Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- caus
- centuri
- centuri
- chang
- climat
- continu
- current
- emiss
- ga
- global
- greenhous
- induc
- larger
- like
- mani
- observ
- rate
- system
- warm
- would
- would
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 10.3%
- Refutes
- 2.0%
- Not enough info
- 84.4%
- Disputed
- 3.3%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 9.8%
- Refutes
- 1.4%
- Not enough info
- 76.3%
- Disputed
- 12.5%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 63.0%
- Refutes
- 24.2%
- Not enough info
- 2.4%
- Disputed
- 10.4%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 0 of 1 gold
- P
- 0.00
- R
- 0.00
- F
- 0.00
#1evidence-209103 Emmer would be elected to the United States House of Representatives four years later.
- would (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.453
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.453
- shared
- 1
#2evidence-230078 The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science.
- climat (shared with the claim)
- chang (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.335
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.335
- shared
- 2
#3evidence-1054845 "The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science.
- climat (shared with the claim)
- chang (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.335
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.335
- shared
- 2
#4evidence-914730 When describing climate science, Hamilton says that official numbers published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are highly cautious, and so the real effects of climate change will likely be even more severe.
- climat (shared with the claim)
- chang (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.335
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.335
- shared
- 2
#5evidence-256037 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produced two separate reports: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation and Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
- climat (shared with the claim)
- chang (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.335
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.335
- shared
- 2
#6evidence-864757 The governments of four countries (the gas/oil-producers USA, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait) blocked a proposal to welcome the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C at the 2018 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP24).
- climat (shared with the claim)
- chang (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.335
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.335
- shared
- 2
Gold evidence (1)
evidence-504415 Many regions have probably already seen increases in warm spells and heat waves, and it is virtually certain that these changes will continue over the 21st century.
- warm (shared with the claim)
- heat
- certain
- virtual
- probabl
- seen
- spell
- alreadi
- wave