Dev claim · claim-2643 · #72 of 154
“The "decline" refers to a decline in northern tree-rings, not global temperature, and is openly discussed in papers and the IPCC reports.”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- declin
- declin
- discuss
- global
- ipcc
- northern
- openli
- paper
- refer
- report
- ring
- temperatur
- tree
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 48.3%
- Refutes
- 17.2%
- Not enough info
- 23.1%
- Disputed
- 11.4%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 49.2%
- Refutes
- 18.6%
- Not enough info
- 21.9%
- Disputed
- 10.3%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 23.6%
- Refutes
- 5.5%
- Not enough info
- 59.7%
- Disputed
- 11.2%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 1 of 3 gold
- P
- 1.00
- R
- 0.33
- F
- 0.50
#1evidence-736392 gold evidence This "decline" referred to the well-discussed tree-ring divergence problem, but these two phrases were taken out of context by global warming sceptics, including US Senator Jim Inhofe and former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin, as though they referred to some decline in measured global temperatures, even though they were written when temperatures were at a record high.
- declin (shared with the claim)
- inhof
- though
- temperatur (shared with the claim)
- sceptic
- global (shared with the claim)
- refer (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.559
- overlap
- 0.571
- score
- 1.131
- shared
- 4
Gold evidence (3)
evidence-224185 Several scientific sources state that the decline being referred to is a decline in tree ring climate proxy metrics, not temperature.
- proxi
- metric
- declin (shared with the claim)
- temperatur (shared with the claim)
- climat
- scientif
- tree (shared with the claim)
- ring (shared with the claim)
- sourc
evidence-267910 The issues with tree rings had not been hidden, but were extensively discussed in scientific literature and in IPCC reports.
- literatur
- hidden
- discuss (shared with the claim)
- scientif
- tree (shared with the claim)
- ipcc (shared with the claim)
- exten
- ring (shared with the claim)
evidence-736392 This "decline" referred to the well-discussed tree-ring divergence problem, but these two phrases were taken out of context by global warming sceptics, including US Senator Jim Inhofe and former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin, as though they referred to some decline in measured global temperatures, even though they were written when temperatures were at a record high.
- declin (shared with the claim)
- inhof
- though
- temperatur (shared with the claim)
- sceptic
- global (shared with the claim)
- refer (shared with the claim)