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Climate Claim Checker

Dev claim · claim-261 · #64 of 154

“in 1995 one scientist at the IPCC – Jonathan Overpeck – wrote an email to a colleague claiming ‘we have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.’”

Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)

  • claim
  • colleagu
  • email
  • get
  • ipcc
  • jonathan
  • mediev
  • one
  • overpeck
  • period
  • rid
  • scientist
  • warm
  • wrote

Annotators’ label

Not enough info Run this claim live

The model’s verdict

The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.

Notebook protocol

Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
61.2%
Refutes
31.5%
Not enough info
0.5%
Disputed
6.8%

One claim at a time

The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.

Supports✗ differs from the label
Supports
53.4%
Refutes
36.8%
Not enough info
5.9%
Disputed
3.9%

With gold evidence

Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.

Not enough info✓ matches the label
Supports
4.6%
Refutes
0.8%
Not enough info
92.4%
Disputed
2.1%

Retrieved vs gold evidence

Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.

2024 submission

The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.

Path
not recorded
Found
0 of 5 gold
P
0.00
R
0.00
F
0.00
  1. #1evidence-1180242

    Kenko wrote during the Muromachi and Kamakura periods.

    • محمد
    • wrote (shared with the claim)
    • period (shared with the claim)
    cos
    0.697
    overlap
    0.667
    score
    1.363
    shared
    2

Gold evidence (5)

  1. evidence-112875

    This was the basis of a "schematic diagram" featured in the IPCC First Assessment Report of 1990 beside cautions that the medieval warming might not have been global.

    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • assess
    • might
    • diagram
    • caution
    • basi
    • ipcc (shared with the claim)
    • mediev (shared with the claim)
    • besid
  2. evidence-33543

    However, that view was questioned by other researchers; the IPCC First Assessment Report of 1990 discussed the "Medieval Warm Period around 1000 AD (which may not have been global) and the Little Ice Age which ended only in the middle to late nineteenth century."

    • assess
    • nineteenth
    • question
    • ipcc (shared with the claim)
    • mediev (shared with the claim)
  3. evidence-974202

    The IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) of 1996 featured a graph of an early northern hemisphere reconstruction by Raymond S. Bradley and Phil Jones, and noted the 1994 reconstruction by Hughes and Henry F. Diaz questioning how widespread the Medieval Warm Period had been at any one time.

    • diaz
    • graph
    • raymond
    • reconstruct
    • sar
    • bradley
  4. evidence-332770

    This was the basis of a "schematic diagram" featured in the IPCC First Assessment Report beside cautions that the medieval warming might not have been global.

    • warm (shared with the claim)
    • assess
    • might
    • diagram
    • caution
    • basi
    • ipcc (shared with the claim)
    • mediev (shared with the claim)
    • besid
  5. evidence-32121

    When the IPCC TAR was still in draft, Fred Singer held a press event saying "We don't accept this" with Wibjörn Karlén who alleged that MBH99 showed neither a Medieval Warm Period nor a Little Ice Age, an inaccurate claim echoed soon afterwards by John Lawrence Daly.

    • neither
    • dali
    • fred
    • afterward
    • ipcc (shared with the claim)
    • echo
    • tar