Dev claim · claim-2034 · #79 of 154
“Latest IPCC Reports (AR5) have shown global mean temperature forecasts from the 2005 IPCC report exceeded actual readings.”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- actual
- exceed
- forecast
- global
- ipcc
- ipcc
- latest
- mean
- read
- report
- report
- shown
- temperatur
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 19.4%
- Refutes
- 5.7%
- Not enough info
- 68.8%
- Disputed
- 6.1%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 34.9%
- Refutes
- 9.3%
- Not enough info
- 41.3%
- Disputed
- 14.5%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 49.6%
- Refutes
- 14.6%
- Not enough info
- 19.7%
- Disputed
- 16.1%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 0 of 2 gold
- P
- 0.00
- R
- 0.00
- F
- 0.00
#1evidence-1052408 This graph extended the similar graph in Figure 3.20 from the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995, and differed from a schematic in the first assessment report that lacked temperature units, but appeared to depict larger global temperature variations over the past 1000 years, and higher temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period than the mid 20th century.
- assess
- report (shared with the claim)
- graph
- temperatur (shared with the claim)
- ipcc (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.800
- overlap
- 0.600
- score
- 1.400
- shared
- 3
#2evidence-349143 For increases in global average temperature exceeding 1.5 to 2.5 °C (relative to global temperatures over the years 1980–1999) and in concomitant atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, projected changes in ecosystems will have predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystems goods and services, e.g., water and food supply.
- exceed (shared with the claim)
- biodiv
- ecosystem
- temperatur (shared with the claim)
- global (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.566
- overlap
- 0.600
- score
- 1.166
- shared
- 3
Gold evidence (2)
evidence-232879 Compared to the previous report, the lower bounds for the sensitivity of the climate system to emissions were slightly lowered, though the projections for global mean temperature rise (compared to pre-industrial levels) by 2100 exceeded 1.5 °C in all scenarios.
- exceed (shared with the claim)
- compar
- lower
- bound
- sensit
- scenario
evidence-1197833 They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability.
- magnitud
- climat
- variabl
- broadli