Dev claim · claim-1734 · #98 of 154
“Jim Hansen had several possible scenarios; his mid-level scenario B was right.”
Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)
- b
- hansen
- jim
- level
- mid
- possibl
- right
- scenario
- scenario
- sever
The model’s verdict
The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.
Notebook protocol
Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.
- Supports
- 25.9%
- Refutes
- 7.2%
- Not enough info
- 58.2%
- Disputed
- 8.7%
One claim at a time
The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.
- Supports
- 41.0%
- Refutes
- 13.6%
- Not enough info
- 33.0%
- Disputed
- 12.4%
With gold evidence
Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.
- Supports
- 21.0%
- Refutes
- 4.8%
- Not enough info
- 66.4%
- Disputed
- 7.9%
Retrieved vs gold evidence
Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.
2024 submission
The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.
- Path
- not recorded
- Found
- 0 of 5 gold
- P
- 0.00
- R
- 0.00
- F
- 0.00
#1evidence-538361 He is a right-handed batsman and right-arm medium-pace bowler who plays for Moratuwa Sports Club.
- right (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.404
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.404
- shared
- 1
#2evidence-1165122 James was a right-handed batsman who bowled right-arm medium pace.
- right (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.404
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.404
- shared
- 1
#3evidence-1045773 He is a right-handed batsman and a right-arm medium pace bowler.
- right (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.404
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.404
- shared
- 1
#4evidence-292698 Wilshaw is a right-handed batsman who bowls right-arm medium-pace.
- right (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.404
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.404
- shared
- 1
#5evidence-565462 Storer was a right-handed batsman who bowled right-arm medium pace.
- right (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.404
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.404
- shared
- 1
#6evidence-938869 Webb was a right-handed batsman who bowled right-arm medium pace.
- right (shared with the claim)
- cos
- 0.404
- overlap
- 1.000
- score
- 1.404
- shared
- 1
Gold evidence (5)
evidence-1005240 They described the intermediate scenario as the most likely, and that real-world greenhouse gas forcing had been closest to this scenario.
- like
- closest
- intermedi
- ga
- greenhou
- describ
- real
- scenario (shared with the claim)
evidence-485896 In 2000 Hansen authored a paper called "Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario" in which he presented a more optimistic way of dealing with global warming, focusing on non-CO2 gases and black carbon in the short run, giving more time to make reductions in fossil fuel emissions.
- hansen (shared with the claim)
- warm
- gase
- global
- scenario (shared with the claim)
evidence-147653 They described a business-as-usual scenario, which has greenhouse gases growing at approximately 2% per year; and an alternate scenario, in which greenhouse gases concentrations decline.
- gase
- declin
- per
- concentr
- altern
- greenhou
- grow
- scenario (shared with the claim)
evidence-210167 An alternate scenario would keep the warming to below this if climate sensitivity were below 3 °C for doubled CO 2.
- warm
- keep
- co
- sensit
- climat
- altern
- doubl
- scenario (shared with the claim)
evidence-901245 How do we know if we have the right scenarios?
- right (shared with the claim)
- know
- scenario (shared with the claim)