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Climate Claim Checker

Dev claim · claim-1273 · #9 of 154

“The rapid changes in the climate may have profound consequences for humans and other species… Severe drought caused food shortages for millions of people in Ethiopia, with a lack of rainfall resulting in “intense and widespread” forest fires in Indonesia that belched out a vast quantity of greenhouse gas”

Claim tags (sorted stems; highlighted when a passage shares them)

  • belch
  • caus
  • chang
  • climat
  • consequ
  • drought
  • ethiopia
  • fire
  • food
  • forest
  • ga
  • greenhous
  • human
  • indonesia
  • intens
  • lack
  • may
  • million
  • peopl
  • profound
  • quantiti
  • rainfal
  • rapid
  • result
  • sever
  • shortag
  • vast
  • widespread

Annotators’ label

Supports Run this claim live

The model’s verdict

The Transformer retrained from the notebook (the 2024 weights were never saved), shown three ways. The first is how the notebook evaluated it.

Notebook protocol

Dev claims predicted in batches of 16, in file order, from the 2024 retrieved evidence, as the notebook does.

Supports✓ matches the label
Supports
57.6%
Refutes
26.7%
Not enough info
8.6%
Disputed
7.0%

One claim at a time

The same model run on a single claim, which is how the Try-it page runs it.

Supports✓ matches the label
Supports
53.9%
Refutes
28.3%
Not enough info
11.8%
Disputed
6.1%

With gold evidence

Fed the human-annotated evidence instead of retrieved passages. This is the 'val accuracy' the training loop reports.

Not enough info✗ differs from the label
Supports
13.4%
Refutes
2.7%
Not enough info
77.6%
Disputed
6.3%

Retrieved vs gold evidence

Gold passages were picked by the dataset’s annotators. Retrieved passages are what the TF-IDF rule returned from all 1.19M passages. Switch between the submitted 2024 output and the re-runs.

2024 submission

The passages the team actually retrieved and submitted in 2024 (their saved output file). The file records only passage ids, so scores are recomputed with the submission rule.

Path
not recorded
Found
0 of 4 gold
P
0.00
R
0.00
F
0.00
  1. #1evidence-107843

    The new forest and the resulting forest fires may have induced climate change.

    • result (shared with the claim)
    • forest (shared with the claim)
    • fire (shared with the claim)
    • may (shared with the claim)
    • chang (shared with the claim)
    • new
    • climat (shared with the claim)
    • induc
    cos
    0.666
    overlap
    0.750
    score
    1.416
    shared
    6

Gold evidence (4)

  1. evidence-659559

    According to the WWF, the combination of climate change and deforestation increases the drying effect of dead trees that fuels forest fires.

    • forest (shared with the claim)
    • fire (shared with the claim)
    • fuel
    • dead
    • deforest
    • dri
    • wwf
    • tree
    • combin
  2. evidence-181656

    Recurring droughts leading to desertification in East Africa have created grave ecological catastrophes, prompting food shortages in 1984–85, 2006 and 2011.

    • shortag (shared with the claim)
    • africa
    • prompt
    • catastroph
    • food (shared with the claim)
    • grave
    • ecolog
    • drought (shared with the claim)
    • recur
  3. evidence-499929

    A 17-year-long civil war, along with severe drought, negatively impacted Ethiopia's environmental conditions, leading to even greater habitat degradation.

    • drought (shared with the claim)
    • impact
    • habitat
    • degrad
    • ethiopia (shared with the claim)
    • neg
    • greater
    • condit
  4. evidence-354699

    A primary cause of the famine (one of the largest seen in the country) is that Ethiopia (and the surrounding Horn) was still recovering from the droughts which occurred in the mid-late 1970s.

    • horn
    • ethiopia (shared with the claim)
    • recov
    • primari
    • famin
    • seen
    • surround
    • drought (shared with the claim)